Three strand approach to enhance Northern Ireland’s connectivity

A three-strand approach to enhance Northern Ireland’s connectivity, binding all areas into a stronger, unified region like the Regional Development Strategy (RDS) 2035:

  1. Belfast to Dublin (A1/M1 corridor)
  2. Northwest to Border via A5
  3. Bangor to Border via Strangford Bridge and road upgrades to A1/M1

This mirrors the Cleddau Bridge’s regional integration success while addressing the goal of transforming Ards, North Down, and Lecale alongside the Northwest and Belfast-Dublin axis. Cleddau sold ferry to Road Service in early 1970s for use in Strangford Lough whilst Cleddau successfully built a bridge which was a transformative success.

Strand 1: Belfast to Dublin (A1/M1 Corridor)

Overview

  • Route: A1/M1, 105 miles from Belfast to Dublin, NI’s busiest road (20,000-30,000 vehicles/day near Newry).
  • Status: Fully operational dual carriageway/motorway, with ongoing upgrades (e.g., £25 million A1 junction improvements, 2023-25).
  • Purpose: Economic artery linking NI’s capital to Ireland’s, supporting £1 billion+ in annual cross-border trade.

Merits

  • Economic Core: Anchors NI’s £5.2 billion export economy (2023), with Belfast’s fintech (£300 million sector) and manufacturing (e.g., aerospace, £1.2 billion) flowing south.
  • Cross-Border Unity: Embodies Shared Island goals—£800 million fund already backs A1-adjacent projects (e.g., Narrow Water Bridge).
  • Traffic Backbone: Handles 10-15 million vehicles/year, ensuring connectivity for 60% of NI’s 1.9 million population (Belfast metro, 600,000+).

Strategic Fit (RDS 2035)

  • RG1 (Economic Growth): Strengthens Belfast-Dublin as a “key economic corridor.”
  • RG8 (Connectivity): Enhances cross-border links, a core RDS aim.

Strand 2: Northwest to Border via A5

Overview

  • Route: A5 Western Transport Corridor, 85 km from Derry/Londonderry to Aughnacloy, linking to Dublin via N2.
  • Status: £1.6 billion upgrade to dual carriageway, in planning (2025 start targeted, delayed by legal challenges).
  • Purpose: Boosts Northwest (Derry, pop. 110,000; Tyrone) connectivity, safety (57 fatalities since 2006), and border access.

Merits

  • Regional Equity: Lifts a historically underserved area (15% of NI population, 300,000+), matching Belfast’s clout.
  • Economic Lift: Supports Derry’s £1 billion regeneration (e.g., Ulster University expansion) and rural Tyrone’s agriculture (£1.5 billion NI sector).
  • Border Flow: Cuts Derry-Dublin travel from 2.5 hours (single-lane bottlenecks) to under 2 hours, aiding 15,000+ vehicles/day.

Strategic Fit (RDS 2035)

  • RG2 (Rural Development): Revitalizes Northwest rural economies.
  • RG7 (Transport Network): Upgrades a “strategic route” to border, per RDS.

Strand 3: Bangor to Border via Strangford Bridge and A1/M1 Upgrades to create strategic spur off Strand 1

Overview

  • Route:
    • Bangor to Portaferry (20 miles, A20/A2 upgrade).
    • Strangford Lough Bridge (1.1 km, Strangford to Portaferry).
    • Strangford to Newry (25 miles, A2/A25/A7 upgrade to A1/M1), totaling 46 miles to border (Newry to Dublin, 55 miles).
  • Status: Conceptual—bridge (£50-150 million) and upgrades (£75-125 million) need £125-275 million total, no current funding.
  • Purpose: Connects Bangor (pop. 60,000), Ards, and Lecale to A1/M1, transforming Southeast into a border-linked hub.

Proposed Upgrades

  • Bangor to Portaferry: Widen A20 (Bangor-Newtownards, 10 miles, 8,000-10,000/day) and A2 (Newtownards-Portaferry, 10 miles, 2,000-3,000/day) to 10,000-12,000/day capacity. Or alternatively create a new spine road if coastal erosion deemed an issue.
  • Bridge: Rose Kennedy style bridge, 5,000-7,000/day potential.
  • Strangford to Newry: A2 (7 miles), A25 (8 miles), A7 (10 miles) to 7,000-10,000/day, joining A1 at Newry.

Merits

  • Southeast Integration: Links 150,000+ residents (North Down, Ards, Lecale) to A1/M1, ending ferry suppression (650/day cap).
  • Economic Boost: Drives 1,500-2,500 jobs—fintech (710-1,600), agriculture (200-500), fishing (50-150)—and £50-100 million GDP growth, akin to Cleddau’s 1,000+ jobs.
  • Border Access: Bangor to Dublin in 2.5-3 hours (101 miles total), Strangford to Newry in 30-35 minutes, opening southern markets and access to wider EU.
  • Tourism Bonus: Enhances 1.5 million annual visitors (Ards/North Down) with year-round access vs. weather-hit ferry.

Strategic Fit (RDS 2035)

  • RG3 (Urban-Rural Linkages): Ties Bangor (urban hub) to rural Lecale/Ards.
  • RG9 (East Coast Growth): Supports “balanced sub-regional development”—a Southeast win.

Combined Merits: Binding NI Through Connectivity

Unified Regional Strength

  • Comprehensive Network:
    • Strand 1 (A1/M1): Central spine, urban-economic core.
    • Strand 2 (A5): Northwest arm, rural-border link.
    • Strand 3 (Bangor-Border): Southeast arm, coastal-rural integration.
  • Population Coverage: Serves 80%+ of NI’s 1.9 million—Belfast metro (600,000), Northwest (300,000), Southeast (150,000)—vs. A1/A5 alone missing East Coast.
  • Traffic Synergy: A1/M1 (20,000-30,000/day), A5 (15,000+/day), Bangor-Border (5,000-7,000/day) could total 40,000-50,000/day across strands, rivaling Cleddau’s 12,000/day scaled up.

Economic Cohesion

  • Job Creation: A5 (2,000-3,000 jobs, construction/trade), Bangor-Border (1,500-2,500), A1/M1 (sustains 10,000+)—5,000-15,000 total, amplifying NI’s £43 billion GDP.
  • Sector Diversity: Fintech (Southeast), manufacturing (Belfast), agriculture (Northwest)—a balanced economy vs. single-corridor reliance.
  • Cross-Border Flow: All strands hit the border—A1/M1 at Newry, A5 at Aughnacloy, Bangor-Border at Newry—tripling NI-Dublin trade routes.

Strategic Alignment (RDS 2035)

  • Vision: “A strong, competitive region” (RDS Goal)—three strands deliver:
    • RG1/RG2: Economic and rural growth (all strands).
    • RG7/RG8: Strategic transport and border links (A5, A1/M1).
    • RG3/RG9: Urban-rural and East Coast balance (Bangor-Border).
  • Equity: Corrects Northwest bias (A5) and Belfast focus (A1/M1), lifting Southeast as Cleddau unified Pembrokeshire.

Resilience and Redundancy

  • Multiple Links: If A1/M1 clogs (e.g., Brexit border checks), A5 and Bangor-Border offer alternatives—unlike Cleddau’s single spur (A477).
  • Climate Adaptation: Bridge replaces weather-vulnerable ferry; A5/A1 upgrades mitigate rural isolation—future-proofs NI vs. Cleddau’s 1970s context.

Challenges and Mitigation

  • Cost: £2 billion+ total (A5 £1.6 billion, Bangor-Border £125-275 million, A1/M1 ongoing £100 million+). Mitigate via:
    • Shared Island (£800 million left post-A5).
    • UK Levelling Up (£500 million NI share).
    • Tolls (£1/car, £5-10 million/year across strands).
  • Political Will: Sinn Féin backs A5, DUP/A1 focus Belfast—Southeast needs clout. Form an “NI Connectivity Alliance” (DUP, Sinn Féin, Alliance MLAs) to push all three.
  • Environment: Strangford Lough’s conservation status vs. A5’s habitat disputes—fund joint £2 million impact study for parity.

Conclusion: A Stronger NI

This three-strand approach binds NI’s regions—Belfast-Dublin as the spine, Northwest and Southeast as vital arms—delivering 40,000-50,000 vehicles/day, 5,000-15,000 jobs, and equitable growth. It’s Cleddau’s integration (12,000/day, rural unity) writ large: A1/M1 anchors, A5 lifts the West, Bangor-Border transforms the East. RDS 2035’s “connected, balanced region” comes alive—Northwest gets its due, Southeast its chance. Push this via councils and a 2026 PfG pledge; it’s NI’s next big leap.

Strand 3 Pitch: Bangor to Border via Strangford Bridge and Lough Loop

Vision

Strand 3 transforms Northern Ireland’s East Coast—Bangor, Ards Peninsula, and Lecale—into a fully integrated economic and social hub, connected to the A1/M1 Belfast-Dublin corridor and looped around Strangford Lough for maximum regional cohesion. A signature bridge, modelled on the Rose Kennedy Bridge, replaces the ferry’s 650-vehicle/day bottleneck, driving 5,000-7,000 vehicles/day and 1,500-2,500 jobs. This complements Strand 1’s urban spine (A1/M1, 20,000-30,000/day) and Strand 2’s Northwest lift (A5, 15,000+/day), binding NI into a stronger, equitable whole.

Core Components

  1. Strangford Lough Bridge:
    • Design: Emulates the Rose Kennedy Bridge (New Ross, Co. Wexford)—a 230-meter main span extradosed bridge, 900 meters total length, built 2016-2020 for €230 million (£200 million today). Adapt to 1.1 km Strangford span, with a swing or lift section for 8-knot tides.
    • Capacity: 5,000-7,000 vehicles/day, vs. ferry’s 650, cutting a 47-mile detour to 5 minutes.
    • Cost: £150-200 million (Rose Kennedy’s scale, adjusted for NI labor and tidal complexity).
  2. Bangor to Newry (A1/M1) Upgrades:
    • Route: Bangor to Portaferry (20 miles, A20/A2), bridge to Strangford, then Strangford to Newry (25 miles, A2/A25/A7)—46 miles total to A1/M1 at Newry.
    • Upgrades:
      • A20 (Bangor-Newtownards, 10 miles): Widen to 10,000-12,000/day.
      • A2 (Newtownards-Portaferry, 10 miles): Upgrade to 5,000-7,000/day.
      • A2/A25/A7 (Strangford-Newry, 25 miles): Enhance to 7,000-10,000/day.
    • Cost: £75-125 million (£3-5 million/mile).
  3. Strangford Lough Loop:
    • Route: Portaferry to Newtownards (10 miles, A2), Newtownards to Comber (6 miles, A22), Comber to Killyleagh (10 miles, A22/A7), Killyleagh to Downpatrick (6 miles, A7), Downpatrick to Strangford (7 miles, A2)—39 miles total.
    • Upgrades: Widen existing single-lane sections (e.g., A2 Portaferry-Newtownards, 2,000-3,000/day; A7 Killyleagh-Downpatrick, 3,000-4,000/day) to 5,000-7,000/day capacity.
    • Cost: £50-80 million (£1.5-2 million/mile, less intensive than A1 spur).

Total Investment

  • Bridge: £150-200 million.
  • Bangor-Newry: £75-125 million.
  • Lough Loop: £50-80 million.
  • Grand Total: £275-405 million (vs. A5’s £1.6 billion, A1/M1’s £100 million+ ongoing).

Merits Within Three-Strand Framework

Connectivity Binding NI

  • Strand Synergy:
    • Strand 1 (A1/M1): Strand 3 feeds into Newry’s A1 hub (20,000-30,000/day), linking Bangor to Dublin in 2.5-3 hours (101 miles)—a Southeast arm to the central spine.
    • Strand 2 (A5): Balances Northwest’s Derry-Dublin link (2 hours, 85 km) with Southeast’s Bangor-Newry-Border route, ensuring no region lags.
    • Strand 3: Ties Bangor (60,000), Ards (80,000), and Lecale (30,000+) to A1/M1 and loops 150,000+ residents internally, mirroring Cleddau’s north-south unity (12,000/day).
  • Traffic Impact: Adds 5,000-7,000/day (bridge + spur) and 3,000-5,000/day (loop), boosting NI’s total from 35,000-45,000/day (Strands 1+2) to 45,000-55,000/day across all three.

Economic Transformation

  • Jobs:
    • Fintech (710-1,600, Bangor/Newtownards hubs).
    • Agriculture (200-500, Lecale/Downpatrick).
    • Fishing (50-150, Portaferry).
    • Construction (300-700, bridge + roads).
    • Total: 1,500-2,500, akin to Cleddau’s 1,000+ oil jobs, scaled for NI’s mix.
  • GDP Boost: £50-100 million over 15 years (0.2-0.5% per 1% time saved, Eddington 2006)—Bangor-Newry in 45 minutes, loop cuts local trips 20-30%.
  • Loop Value: Connects tourism (1.5 million visitors/year), industry (e.g., Comber’s agri-tech), and housing (1,000-2,000 new homes), amplifying Strand 3’s reach vs. A5’s linear focus.

Strategic Alignment (RDS 2035)

  • RG1 (Economy): Bangor-Newry spurs fintech/agriculture to A1 markets, loop boosts rural commerce.
  • RG3 (Urban-Rural): Bangor (urban) to Lecale (rural) integrates via bridge and loop.
  • RG7 (Transport): Upgrades “strategic routes” (A20/A2/A7) to A1/M1.
  • RG9 (East Coast): Delivers “balanced sub-regional growth”—Southeast rises with Northwest (A5).

Equity and Resilience

  • Equity: A5 lifts Northwest (300,000 people, £1.6 billion); Strand 3 matches for Southeast (150,000+, £275-405 million)—fairness vs. A1/M1’s Belfast bias.
  • Resilience: Bridge ends ferry weather risks (e.g., 2024 suspension); loop adds redundancy if A1 clogs—stronger than Cleddau’s single A477 spur.

Comparison to Rose Kennedy Bridge

  • Design: Rose Kennedy (900m, €230 million) handles 10,000-15,000/day across River Barrow, linking Wexford to Waterford. Strangford’s 1.1 km, £150-200 million version targets 5,000-7,000/day—proportionate for NI’s rural East (150,000) vs. Wexford’s 163,000.
  • Impact: Rose Kennedy cut a 20-mile detour, boosting southeast Ireland’s trade/tourism. Strangford cuts 47 miles, with loop adding local flow—similar regional lift.
  • Lesson: Rose Kennedy’s government funding (Irish exchequer) suggests NI could tap Shared Island (£200 million) for Strand 3.

Integration with Strands 1 and 2

  • Strand 1 (A1/M1): Strand 3’s Newry tie-in feeds Southeast traffic (5,000-7,000/day) into A1’s 20,000-30,000/day, enhancing Belfast-Dublin without duplication—loop strengthens feeder roads.
  • Strand 2 (A5): A5’s Northwest focus (15,000+/day) pairs with Strand 3’s Southeast vision—two border arms (Aughnacloy, Newry) balance NI’s west and east vs. A1’s central spine.
  • Three-Strand Unity: Covers 80%+ of NI’s 1.9 million people, 45,000-55,000 vehicles/day, and 5,000-15,000 jobs—binding urban (Belfast), rural West (Derry), and East Coast (Bangor-Downpatrick) into a cohesive network.

Pitch to NI Executive

“A Three-Strand Future: Connectivity for All”

  • Why Strand 3?: The East Coast deserves its Cleddau moment—Bangor to Border via a Rose Kennedy-style bridge and A1 spur, plus a Strangford Lough loop, unlocks 1,500-2,500 jobs and 5,000-7,000 vehicles/day. It’s equity with A5’s £1.6 billion Northwest lift and A1/M1’s £100 million+ backbone.
  • Funding: £275-405 million—Shared Island (£200 million), UK Levelling Up (£100 million), tolls (£1/car, £1.8-2.5 million/year)—less than A5, transformative like Rose Kennedy.
  • Action: Fund a £1 million study (2026), build by 2030—list in 2026 PfG as “Strand 3: East Coast Rising.”
  • Outcome: NI as a connected powerhouse—Strand 1 binds Belfast-Dublin, Strand 2 lifts the Northwest, Strand 3 revives the Southeast. No region left behind.

Conclusion

Strand 3, with its Rose Kennedy-inspired bridge and lough loop, completes NI’s connectivity trinity—mirroring Cleddau’s rural unity (12,000/day) at 5,000-7,000/day, scaled for Ards/Lecale. It ties Bangor to Newry’s A1/M1 in 45 minutes, loops 150,000+ residents, and boosts Strands 1 and 2 into a 45,000-55,000/day network. NI’s East Coast transforms by 2035.