02 Apr 2025

Strategic stalling from unionism (DUP/UUP/TUV) on implementing or embracing the full potential of the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) is only strengthening the growing inevitability of some form of unification.

Unionism is deliberately slowing progress under the GFA as a tactic to block change — then the question becomes: what developments would seriously challenge that strategy or force a rethink?

Here’s a rundown of what could genuinely rattle or scare political unionism if their assumptions about stalling are wrong:

1. A Sudden Shift in Cross-Community Support for Irish Unity

  • What would scare them: Solid, consistent polling showing a majority of both Catholics and a significant portion of “others”/Protestants support holding a border poll or moving toward unity.
  • Why it matters: Unionism banks on the idea that nationalist demographics aren’t enough to trigger change — if that changes, their “majority no longer matters” strategy collapses.

2. Dublin and Washington Taking a More Assertive Role

  • What would scare them: A scenario where the Irish Government, backed by the US, begins to openly call for constitutional conversations, or intervenes more visibly in North-South and East-West affairs.
  • Why it matters: Unionists like the optics of “Northern Ireland is a UK matter.” If that narrative breaks down internationally, it undercuts their sense of ownership/control.

3. Major Reform to GFA Institutions — Ending Mandatory Coalition

  • What would scare them: Westminster or an all-party NI consensus reforming the rules of governance, for example by ending mutual veto or changing the cross-community voting rules.
  • Why it matters: Right now, the stalling works because the structures require DUP buy-in. Change that, and the leverage dissolves.

4. Nationalist-Led Governance Without Unionist Participation

  • What would scare them: Sinn Féin and SDLP leading an Executive with a working majority, and the UK Government allowing that governance to proceed.
  • Why it matters: Unionism often assumes they can pull the plug and all parties will wait — if London moves ahead without them (as in Scotland/Wales models), their veto loses power.

5. Business Community Turning Against Unionist Intransigence

  • What would scare them: Major NI business groups publicly blaming unionist parties for economic stagnation or lost investment due to instability.
  • Why it matters: Unionism leans heavily on being the “economic stability” voice — if that collapses, their cross-community appeal weakens dramatically.

6. Rise of a Confident, Non-Tribal ‘Post-GFA Generation’

  • What would scare them: A growing number of young people who reject orange/green divisions, see the DUP/TUV as outdated, and back structural change or even Irish unity for practical reasons (housing, healthcare, identity).
  • Why it matters: Unionist tactics rely on fixed identities and fear — a generation that doesn’t buy into that weakens their base.

7. The UK Government Goes Cold

  • What would scare them: A UK Government (especially Labour) that signals it will no longer indulge NI as a special case of deadlock, and is open to border poll criteria being more clearly defined.
  • Why it matters: Unionism assumes London will always cushion them — if that safety net gets pulled, everything changes.

If their tactical stalling is based on false assumptions, then real danger lies in the other side (Nationalism, big and small) quietly building an unshakable case for change — not with noise, but with patient groundwork: legal clarity, public persuasion, international backing, and political maturity.