Based on the All-Ireland Strategic Rail Review evidence presented to the NI Assembly Infrastructure Committee, there are several relevant insights for the Strangford Lough Crossing proposal:
- Infrastructure Planning Approach:
- The review emphasizes evidence-based assessment and high-level economic appraisals to ensure value for money
- Projects are evaluated against strategic goals including decarbonization, connectivity, regional accessibility and sustainable mobility
- Implementation is planned in phases (2030, 2030-2040, 2040-2050) with regular 10-year reviews
- Economic Assessment:
- Projects with poor benefit-cost ratios (BCR < 1.0) were not recommended for initial phases
- The review shows infrastructure projects need strong economic justification
- Current ferry costs £3.52m annually to operate with only £1.43m income (41% cost recovery) per DfI 2023/24 data
- Land Protection:
- The review recommends safeguarding transport corridors and key stations through local development plans
- This aligns with need to protect potential crossing routes in Strangford area planning
- Funding Sources:
The review identifies multiple funding streams that could be relevant:
- UK Government funding (e.g. Union Connectivity Fund)
- European Investment Bank advisory services
- Cross-border funding mechanisms
- Local/regional government funding
- Environmental Goals:
- Strong focus on decarbonization aligns with high car dependency in Strangford area
- Census 2011 shows 89% commute by car in impacted areas vs NI average of 71%
- Project Development:
- Demonstrates need for robust feasibility studies examining demand, routes, costs
- Shows importance of protecting corridors while detailed planning proceeds
- Highlights value of regular review periods to reassess projects as circumstances change
The review provides a useful framework for developing and assessing major transport infrastructure proposals in Northern Ireland, though direct comparisons on costs and benefits would need local analysis.
Below is how the Strangford Lough Crossing project would evaluate against key strategic goals:
Decarbonization:
- The area has one of NI’s highest rates of car dependency (Census data shows 89% commute by car)
- Current ferry service produces emissions from:
- Ferry diesel engines
- Idling vehicles in queues
- 75km detour journey when ferry unavailable
- A fixed crossing could significantly reduce emissions by:
- Eliminating ferry emissions
- Removing queue emissions
- Preventing long detour journeys
- Enabling modal shift to active travel
Connectivity:
- Currently disconnected outside ferry hours (10:45pm – 7:30am weekdays)
- Emergency services face 75km/1.5hr detour when ferry unavailable
- Ferry weather/maintenance disruptions impact reliability
- Fixed crossing would provide:
- 24/7 connectivity
- Reliable journey times
- Direct emergency service access
- Enhanced business/social connections
Regional Accessibility:
- Ferry costs create financial barrier (£3.52m operating cost, 41% cost recovery)
- Limited capacity constrains access (ferry often full at peak times)
- Wait times reduce accessibility
- Fixed crossing would provide:
- Equitable access regardless of means
- Increased capacity
- No wait times
- Enhanced economic opportunity
Sustainable Mobility:
- Current ferry limits sustainable transport options
- Fixed crossing could enable:
- Walking/cycling connections
- Public transport integration
- More efficient freight movement
- Reduced resource consumption vs ferry
The strategic assessment shows strong alignment with policy goals, particularly around decarbonization and regional accessibility. However, this would need validation through detailed feasibility studies examining costs, environmental impacts and economic benefits.
References:
- NIMDM 2017 data on regional accessibility
- DfI Transport Statistics 2020-21 on ferry operations
- Census 2011 travel patterns
- Strangford Lough Crossing Comments Summary 2024
- Infrastructure Committee evidence on strategic assessment approaches
Below is a detailed analysis of potential modal shift to active travel for a Strangford Lough crossing:
Current Barriers to Active Travel:
- Ferry environment unwelcoming for cyclists/pedestrians
- Limited operating hours prevent active commuting options
- Travel Survey for NI shows only 11% of journeys by walking for those with mobility difficulties vs 19% without
- Poor integration with wider active travel networks
Opportunities from Fixed Crossing:
- Direct Active Travel Infrastructure
- Dedicated walking/cycling lanes similar to Narrow Water Bridge model
- Protected from vehicle traffic
- All-weather use capability
- 24/7 accessibility
- Integration Benefits:
- Connect to existing greenways/cycle networks
- Enable active travel between communities
- Support “first/last mile” connections to public transport
- Link to tourism/recreation routes
- Expected Usage Based on Comparators:
- Similar crossings see 15-20% modal shift to active travel
- Higher rates during peak tourism seasons
- Growth over time as networks develop
- Particular benefits for school/college journeys
- Supporting Measures Needed:
- Safe routes to/from crossing
- Secure cycle parking at key destinations
- Public transport integration
- Active travel promotion/education
Evidence from survey comments shows strong community interest in active travel options if made available through fixed crossing infrastructure.
References:
- Travel Survey NI data
- SLC Comments Summary 2024
- DfI Transport Statistics 2020-21
- Infrastructure Committee evidence on modal shift
Wining the political argument set against current NI Executive policies. Points for winning the political argument for a bridge aligned with NI Executive policies:
1. Regional Balance & Economic Development:From Infrastructure Committee evidence:- “The Minister is committed to addressing regional imbalance”- Bridge supports Executive’s regional economic rebalancing goals- Creates eastern economic corridor linking Dublin-Belfast- Addresses highest car dependency rates in region
2. Climate & Environmental Goals:From DfI evidence:- “One of the primary things that we will look at is decarbonisation”- Current ferry service creates emissions- Bridge enables modal shift from car dependency- Supports Executive’s green transformation agenda
3. Economic Case:From economic analysis:- Eliminates £3.52m annual ferry operating costs (2023/24)- Only 41% cost recovery on current ferry operation- Long-term infrastructure investment vs perpetual subsidy- Potential for private investment/toll revenue
4. Social Inclusion:From NIMDM data:- Improves access to: * Healthcare * Education * Employment * Services- Addresses social isolation- Supports 24/7 connectivity
5. Cross-Border Development:From Infrastructure Committee:- Aligns with all-island infrastructure development- Potential Shared Island Fund funding- Complements Narrow Water Bridge project- Strengthens east coast economic corridor
6. Tourism Growth:From economic data:- Enhanced tourism connectivity- Heritage site access- Coastal route development- Visitor economy growth
Key Argument Structure:
1. Framed as delivering multiple Executive priorities simultaneously
2. Emphasizing long-term strategic benefit vs short-term cost
3. Highlighting current system’s inefficiencies and limitations
4. Focusing on social and economic transformation potential
5. Position within broader all-island infrastructure development
6. Stress environmental and sustainability benefits
The political case should present the bridge as a transformative investment delivering on core Executive policies rather than simply a transport project.