Based on the available evidence, I would provide the following response to concerns about potential loss of trade from a bridge replacement:

Response for Ministers – Trade Impact Analysis of Fixed Crossing

1. Historical Evidence

The Cleddau Bridge example (documented in Hansard, March 1990) demonstrates that fixed crossings typically increase rather than decrease economic activity:

• Traffic volumes grew from 885,900 crossings in 1975 to 4.7 million annually by 2024
• This represents a 5.3x increase in traffic flow, bringing significantly more potential customers
• Economic activity expanded on both sides of the crossing

1. Current Traffic Constraints

The 2013 Strategic Review Report and recent DfI data show the ferry service is actively suppressing economic activity:

• Limited to 650 vehicle crossings per day due to capacity constraints
• Operating hours restrict evening economy (last sailing 22:30)
• Frequent cancellations impact business reliability
• High crossing costs deterring casual visitors

1. Business Survey Evidence

The November 2024 community survey indicates:

• Restaurant owners report “unacceptable” loss of trade from ferry unreliability
• Hospitality businesses constrained by last ferry timing
• Tourism potential limited by crossing uncertainty
• Business expansion inhibited by access constraints

1. Economic Growth Potential

Analysis suggests a fixed crossing would:

• Enable 24/7 business operations
• Reduce transport costs (currently £1.3m annual fare revenue indicating significant business expense)
• Increase visitor numbers through improved accessibility
• Support investment by removing access uncertainty
• Create new business opportunities through reliable connectivity

1. Comparative Evidence

The Isle of Skye Bridge demonstrates positive economic outcomes:

• Tourism increased significantly after bridge opening
• Business growth on both sides of crossing
• No reduction in existing town center trade
• New business opportunities emerged from improved access

1. Mitigation Measures

To support existing businesses during transition:

• Develop integrated tourism strategy promoting both towns
• Enhance town center facilities and attractions
• Consider local business support package during construction
• Ensure bridge approach roads support town center access

The evidence strongly indicates that rather than reducing trade, a fixed crossing would significantly expand the economic potential of both Strangford and Portaferry by removing current artificial constraints on business activity and growth.

This assessment is supported by multiple data sources and real-world examples of similar infrastructure transitions.