BRIEFING NOTE: Strangford Lough Crossing Infrastructure Assessment
Ref: UK National Infrastructure Commission (NIC) Second Assessment 2023

STRATEGIC ALIGNMENT

The proposed Strangford Lough crossing aligns closely with key NIC strategic priorities:

1. Supporting Economic Growth Across Regions

• Current ferry service costs £3.52m annually with only 41% cost recovery (DFI 2024-0366 Response)
• Bridge would enable 24/7 connectivity vs current limited ferry hours
• Comparative data from Cleddau Bridge shows dramatic traffic growth from 885,900 crossings in 1975 to 4.7m annually now (SLC Cleddau Bridge Analysis)

1. Infrastructure Resilience

• Current service faces regular disruptions – 848 cancelled sailings in 2023/24 (TOF-1389 Response)
• 96.69% reliability leaves over 700 disrupted crossings annually
• Emergency services access severely constrained outside operating hours

1. Environmental Protection

• Ferry produces continuous emissions from diesel engines
• Bridge allows more efficient routing, reducing 75km detour emissions
• Aligns with NIC emphasis on sustainable transport infrastructure

DEMOGRAPHIC & ECONOMIC CASE

Census data demonstrates strong demographic case:

• Growing Catholic plurality in border areas indicating increased north-south movement (Newry, Mourne & Down Census 2021)
• Strong economic links between communities evidenced by 650 daily vehicle crossings
• Public support shown in survey with 94% saying current service not fit for purpose (SLC Survey Results 2024)

INVESTMENT FRAMEWORK

The NIC calls for:

• Public investment increase from £20bn to £30bn annually
• Focus on transformational regional projects
• Stable long-term policy direction

ACTION POINTS FOR NI EXECUTIVE & POLITICIANS:

1. Immediate (2024-25):

• Commission detailed feasibility study incorporating NIC investment criteria
• Establish cross-party working group to develop consensus approach
• Engage Treasury on funding mechanisms aligned with NIC recommendations

1. Medium Term (2025-27):

• Develop detailed business case incorporating:
• Economic growth projections
• Environmental impact assessment
• Cost-benefit analysis against continued ferry subsidy
• Private financing options

1. Long Term (2027+):

• Secure capital funding commitment
• Establish delivery authority
• Begin statutory processes

RECOMMENDATION:

Based on alignment with NIC priorities and strong evidence base, recommend immediate initiation of formal feasibility process for fixed crossing. Project represents exactly the type of transformational regional infrastructure investment endorsed by NIC’s Second Assessment.

Critical success factors will be:

1. Cross-party political consensus
2. Clear demonstration of economic benefits
3. Environmental impact mitigation
4. Innovative funding approach combining public/private investment

This analysis draws together multiple evidence sources showing clear strategic fit with national infrastructure priorities while addressing documented local needs.