16 Apr 2025

From previous blog, a suggested proposal to include a revenue-sharing mechanism, specifically a 20% VAT on ticket sales from events at Casement Park, aims to offset public investment and provide a long-term return for government funding. This approach respects the GAA’s position of maintaining its £15 million contribution while ensuring taxpayers see economic benefits over time.

Below, I expand on how this mechanism could work, estimate potential government income from VAT on ticket sales over 10, 20, and 30 years, and provide illustrative examples based on reasonable assumptions about event frequency, attendance, and ticket prices. The analysis assumes the UK government retains VAT revenue, as Casement Park is in Northern Ireland, but notes potential discussions with the Irish government given their funding role.

How the 20% VAT on Ticket Sales Works

VAT Basics: In the UK, the standard VAT rate is 20%, applied to most goods and services, including event tickets (e.g., sports, concerts). For Casement Park, ticket sales from GAA matches, concerts, and other events (e.g., soccer matches, community events) would generate VAT revenue, which flows to HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC).
Revenue-Sharing Mechanism: The proposal suggests that 20% VAT on ticket sales be explicitly tracked as a return on public investment in Casement Park. This could involve:
Direct VAT Collection: The GAA, as the operator, collects VAT on ticket sales and remits it to HMRC, with the government earmarking this revenue (or a portion) to offset the £270 million project cost.
Agreement with GAA: A formal agreement could stipulate that VAT from Casement Park events is monitored over a set period (e.g., 30 years) to demonstrate public value. Alternatively, the GAA could commit to a fixed repayment schedule based on projected VAT, supplementing standard tax flows.
Scope of Events:
GAA Matches: Regular Ulster Championship games, club matches, and potential All-Ireland fixtures.
Non-GAA Events: Concerts, soccer matches (e.g., Irish League or international friendlies), and community events, broadening the revenue base.
Accounting for VAT: Ticket prices are typically quoted inclusive of VAT. For a £50 ticket, £8.33 is VAT (20% of £41.67 net price), and the government receives this amount. The analysis below uses net ticket prices to calculate VAT accurately.

Assumptions for Estimating VAT Revenue

To estimate government income from VAT on ticket sales over 10, 20, and 30 years, we need assumptions about event frequency, attendance, and ticket prices. These are informed by Casement Park’s planned capacity, comparable venues, and economic projections for Northern Ireland’s events market.

Venue Capacity:

Casement Park is planned for 34,000 seats (scaled back from 38,000 for Euro 2028).
Assume 80% average attendance to account for varying event popularity (27,200 attendees per event).

Event Frequency:

GAA Matches: 10 major events annually (e.g., Ulster Championship, club finals, inter-county games).
Concerts: 3 major concerts annually, based on comparable venues like Páirc Uí Chaoimh (Cork) or Aviva Stadium (Dublin).
Other Events: 5 events annually (e.g., soccer matches, community festivals, smaller concerts).
Total: 18 events per year.

Ticket Prices (Net, Excluding VAT):

GAA Matches: Average £25 net price (£30 inclusive of VAT), reflecting affordable pricing for fans.
Concerts: Average £50 net price (£60 inclusive), based on mid-tier concert pricing.
Other Events: Average £20 net price (£24 inclusive), for smaller-scale events.
Weighted Average: Assuming 10 GAA events (£25), 3 concerts (£50), and 5 other events (£20), the weighted average net ticket price is approximately £28.33 per event.

VAT Calculation:

VAT = 20% of net ticket price.
For a £28.33 net ticket, VAT = £5.67 per ticket.

Annual Revenue:

Attendees per event: 27,200.
Events per year: 18.
Total annual tickets sold: 27,200 × 18 = 489,600.
Annual VAT revenue: 489,600 × £5.67 = £2,776,032.

Inflation and Growth:

Assume ticket prices and attendance remain constant in real terms (adjusted for inflation). In practice, ticket prices may rise with inflation (e.g., 2% annually), but VAT revenue is calculated in 2025 pounds for simplicity.
Assume the venue operates at full capacity from year 1 (post-construction, assumed 2028).

Time Horizons:

Calculate cumulative VAT revenue over 10 years (2028–2037), 20 years (2028–2047), and 30 years (2028–2057).

Estimated Government Income from VAT

Using the above assumptions, we calculate VAT revenue as follows:

Annual VAT Revenue: £2,776,032 (489,600 tickets × £5.67 VAT per ticket).
Cumulative Revenue:
10 Years: £2,776,032 × 10 = £27,760,320.
20 Years: £2,776,032 × 20 = £55,520,640.
30 Years: £2,776,032 × 30 = £83,280,960.

Sensitivity Analysis with Examples

To account for variability in event frequency, attendance, and ticket prices, we provide three scenarios: Conservative, Baseline (above), and Optimistic. Each scenario adjusts assumptions to reflect different levels of success for Casement Park as a multi-purpose venue.

1. Conservative Scenario

Assumptions:
Fewer events: 12 per year (8 GAA, 2 concerts, 2 other).
Lower attendance: 60% capacity (20,400 attendees per event).
Lower ticket prices: £20 net for GAA, £40 net for concerts, £15 net for other (weighted average £22 net, VAT £4.40 per ticket).
Annual Tickets Sold: 20,400 × 12 = 244,800.
Annual VAT Revenue: 244,800 × £4.40 = £1,077,120.
Cumulative Revenue:
10 Years: £1,077,120 × 10 = £10,771,200.
20 Years: £1,077,120 × 20 = £21,542,400.
30 Years: £1,077,120 × 30 = £32,313,600.

2. Baseline Scenario (Repeated for Clarity)

Assumptions: As above (18 events, 27,200 attendees, £28.33 net ticket price, £5.67 VAT).
Annual VAT Revenue: £2,776,032.
Cumulative Revenue:
10 Years: £27,760,320.
20 Years: £55,520,640.
30 Years: £83,280,960.

3. Optimistic Scenario

Assumptions:
More events: 25 per year (12 GAA, 5 concerts, 8 other).
Higher attendance: 90% capacity (30,600 attendees per event).
Higher ticket prices: £30 net for GAA, £60 net for concerts, £25 net for other (weighted average £35 net, VAT £7 per ticket).
Annual Tickets Sold: 30,600 × 25 = 765,000.
Annual VAT Revenue: 765,000 × £7 = £5,355,000.
Cumulative Revenue:
10 Years: £5,355,000 × 10 = £53,550,000.
20 Years: £5,355,000 × 20 = £107,100,000.
30 Years: £5,355,000 × 30 = £160,650,000.

Summary Table of VAT Revenue Projections

Scenario	Annual VAT Revenue	10 Years	20 Years	30 Years
Conservative	£1,077,120	£10,771,200	£21,542,400	£32,313,600
Baseline	£2,776,032	£27,760,320	£55,520,640	£83,280,960
Optimistic	£5,355,000	£53,550,000	£107,100,000	£160,650,000

Examples of Event-Driven Revenue

To illustrate how VAT revenue accumulates, consider specific events at Casement Park:

GAA Ulster Championship Final:

Attendance: 30,000 (near capacity).
Ticket price: £30 net (£36 inclusive).
VAT per ticket: £6.
VAT revenue: 30,000 × £6 = £180,000 per match.
If 2 such finals occur annually: £360,000/year.

Major Concert (e.g., Ed Sheeran):

Attendance: 34,000 (full capacity).
Ticket price: £60 net (£72 inclusive).
VAT per ticket: £12.
VAT revenue: 34,000 × £12 = £408,000 per concert.
If 3 concerts occur annually: £1,224,000/year.

Soccer Friendly (e.g., Northern Ireland vs. Republic of Ireland):

Attendance: 25,000.
Ticket price: £25 net (£30 inclusive).
VAT per ticket: £5.
VAT revenue: 25,000 × £5 = £125,000 per match.
If 1 such match occurs annually: £125,000/year.

Combining these (and other smaller events), the baseline scenario’s £2.78 million annual VAT is plausible, with potential for higher returns if Casement Park becomes a premier venue.

Implications for Public Investment

Offsetting Costs: The £270 million project cost (with £150 million shortfall) could be partially offset by VAT revenue:
Baseline (30 years): £83.3 million covers 31% of the total cost or 55% of the shortfall.
Optimistic (30 years): £160.7 million covers 59% of the total cost or 107% of the shortfall, effectively repaying the shortfall.
Justifying Funding: These projections demonstrate to taxpayers and critics (e.g., unionist parties) that public investment yields long-term returns, especially if Casement Park hosts diverse events.
Irish Government Role: If the Irish government contributes £60 million, discussions could explore sharing VAT revenue proportionally (e.g., 22% of VAT to Ireland, reflecting their 22% funding share). Alternatively, the UK could retain all VAT as the host jurisdiction.

Implementation Considerations

Tracking Mechanism: The Department for Communities (DfC) and HMRC should establish a system to track VAT from Casement Park events, possibly via a unique tax code for the venue.
GAA Agreement: The GAA must agree to transparent reporting of ticket sales and VAT remittances, potentially formalized in a funding contract.
Maximizing Events: To reach optimistic projections, Ulster GAA should partner with promoters (e.g., Live Nation for concerts) and sports bodies (e.g., Irish FA) to diversify events.
Public Reporting: Annual reports on VAT revenue and economic impact will maintain public trust and counter criticisms about cost.

Risks and Mitigation

Risk: Fewer events or lower attendance than projected.
Mitigation: Diversify event types and market Casement Park as a regional hub, leveraging Belfast’s growing tourism sector.
Risk: VAT rate changes (e.g., reduced to 15% or exemptions for cultural events).
Mitigation: Lock in the 20% VAT commitment in funding agreements or use alternative revenue-sharing (e.g., a percentage of net ticket sales).
Risk: GAA resistance to revenue-sharing perception.
Mitigation: Frame VAT as a standard tax obligation, not an additional GAA contribution, and highlight mutual benefits.

Conclusion

The 20% VAT on ticket sales from Casement Park events offers a viable mechanism to offset public investment, with estimated government income ranging from £10.8–53.6 million over 10 years, £21.5–107.1 million over 20 years, and £32.3–160.7 million over 30 years, depending on event success. By tracking VAT, diversifying events, and ensuring transparency, this approach justifies the £270 million project cost, addresses political concerns, and delivers long-term economic benefits for Northern Ireland. The June 2025 funding announcement should incorporate this mechanism to secure stakeholder buy-in and ensure Casement Park’s viability.

Casement Park VAT Revenue Projections

Overview

This document outlines projected government income from 20% VAT on ticket sales at Casement Park over 10, 20, and 30 years, as a mechanism to offset public investment in the £270 million stadium redevelopment.

Assumptions

Capacity: 34,000 seats, 80% average attendance (27,200 per event).
Events: 18 annually (10 GAA, 3 concerts, 5 other).
Ticket Prices (Net): £25 (GAA), £50 (concerts), £20 (other); weighted average £28.33.
VAT: 20% of net price (£5.67 per ticket).
Annual Tickets: 489,600 (27,200 × 18).
No inflation adjustment for simplicity.

Baseline Projections

Annual VAT Revenue: £2,776,032 (489,600 × £5.67).
Cumulative Revenue:
10 Years: £27,760,320
20 Years: £55,520,640
30 Years: £83,280,960

Sensitivity Analysis

Conservative Scenario

Assumptions: 12 events, 60% attendance (20,400), £22 net ticket (£4.40 VAT).
Annual VAT: £1,077,120 (244,800 × £4.40).
Cumulative:
10 Years: £10,771,200
20 Years: £21,542,400
30 Years: £32,313,600

Optimistic Scenario

Assumptions: 25 events, 90% attendance (30,600), £35 net ticket (£7 VAT).
Annual VAT: £5,355,000 (765,000 × £7).
Cumulative:
10 Years: £53,550,000
20 Years: £107,100,000
30 Years: £160,650,000

Example Events

GAA Ulster Final:

30,000 attendees, £30 net ticket, £6 VAT.
VAT: £180,000 per event.

Concert:

34,000 attendees, £60 net ticket, £12 VAT.
VAT: £408,000 per event.

Soccer Friendly:

25,000 attendees, £25 net ticket, £5 VAT.
VAT: £125,000 per event.

Implementation

Tracking: DfC and HMRC to monitor VAT via unique tax code.
GAA Agreement: Formalize VAT reporting in funding contract.
Event Diversification: Partner with promoters and sports bodies.
Reporting: Annual public reports on VAT and economic impact.

Conclusion

VAT revenue could offset 31–59% of the £270 million cost over 30 years, justifying public investment and addressing stakeholder concerns.