Based on the available data, below is an analysis of how a bridge could impact student flows between the Lecale (southern/western) and Peninsula (eastern) sides of Strangford Lough:

Current School Distribution

Lecale Side (Newry, Mourne & Down Council area):
From 2021 Census data and education statistics: Red indicates merged from Sept 2024 and named ‘Lecale Trinity Grammar School

• Population aged 0-24: 7,144 in Peninsula DEA
• Schools: Data shows strong post-primary provision including:
• St Patrick’s Grammar School, Downpatrick
• De La Salle High School, Downpatrick
• Down High School, Downpatrick

Peninsula Side (Ards & North Down Council area):
From Local Assessment of Need 2023:

• 13 Primary Schools (3 Integrated status)
• 3 Post Primary Schools (1 Integrated status)
• Many students currently travel to Newtownards, Bangor or Belfast for post-primary education

Travel Times & Access:
Current situation (from Strategic Review Report 2013):

• Road journey around lough: 75km/1.5 hours
• Ferry crossing: 0.6 nautical miles/8 minutes
• Ferry operates 7:30am – 11:00pm weekdays
• First sailing from Portaferry (7:45am) often at capacity

Educational Achievement Gaps:

Peninsula DEA (from Local Assessment of Need):

• 86.1% achieving 5+ GCSEs A*-C (lowest in Ards & North Down)
• 40.4% progression to Higher Education
• Significant FSM/non-FSM achievement gap
• 42.6% FSM pupils achieving 5+ GCSEs vs 81.9% non-FSM

Newry, Mourne & Down (from Census 2021):

• Higher overall GCSE achievement rates
• More diverse post-16 provision
• Better access to Further Education facilities

Potential Benefits of Bridge:

1. Educational Choice:

• Would enable Peninsula students to more reliably access Downpatrick schools
• Could allow Lecale students to access integrated education options on Peninsula
• Would support greater school choice for both communities

1. Access to Facilities:

• Shared access to specialist facilities
• Better access to extra-curricular activities
• Improved access to further education

1. Operational Benefits:

• Remove dependency on ferry timetables for school transport
• More reliable journey times
• Support for after-school activities
• Emergency access when required

1. Economic Impacts:

• Potential savings on school transport costs
• Reduced pressure on existing transport infrastructure
• More efficient use of educational resources across both areas

1. Social Integration:

• Greater opportunities for cross-community education
• Support for integrated education objectives
• Broader social mixing between communities

The data suggests a bridge could help address educational inequality by:

• Providing more reliable access to educational facilities
• Supporting greater school choice
• Enabling more efficient use of educational resources across both council areas
• Facilitating better access to post-16 education and training

Sources:

• Census Data 2021 (both council areas)
• Local Assessment of Need 2023 – Ards and North Down
• Strangford Lough Ferry Service Strategic Review 2013
• DOF 2024-0440 ANNEX C
• Annual enrolments at grant-aided schools in Northern Ireland, 2024/25

This analysis suggests potential significant educational benefits from improved cross-lough connectivity, particularly in addressing current achievement gaps and access issues identified in the Peninsula DEA.