Based on analysis of the Census data and traffic patterns between Ards and North Down and Newry, Mourne and Down, here are the key factors relevant to the Strangford Lough Crossing (SLC) proposal:
Population and Growth
- Combined population of 345,733 (2021) showing growth in both areas since 2011
- Newry, Mourne and Down grew by 6.1% vs Ards and North Down at 4.5%
- Both areas have aging populations with increases in 65+ age groups
- Growing working age populations requiring improved connectivity
Economic Factors Supporting Bridge Case:
- Commuting Patterns
- 34% of Ards & North Down residents travel 5-20km to work
- Only 21% work within 5km of home
- Bridge would expand employment catchment areas
- Business/Economic Integration
- Different industry profiles that could complement each other:
- Ards: Strong public sector (37%) and financial services (16%)
- Newry: Strong construction (13%) and manufacturing (9%)
- Potential for increased business interaction and supply chain integration
- Tourism Development
- Both areas have high car ownership (85%+ households have cars)
- Bridge would create tourism circuit linking Ards Peninsula to Mournes
- Supports objectives in “Ireland’s Ancient East Regional Tourism Development Strategy 2023-2027”
Demographic Trends Supporting Investment:
- Population Growth
- Both areas growing faster than NI average
- Creating increased demand for connectivity
- Bridge would support sustainable growth patterns
- Cross-Community Benefits
- Different community profiles would benefit from increased integration:
- Ards: 68% Protestant, 14% Catholic
- Newry: 72% Catholic, 22% Protestant
- Working Age Population
- Both areas have 55-56% employment rates
- Bridge would expand labor market access
- Support economic development objectives
Traffic Impact Analysis (from NIFHA documents):
- Current ferry carries ~650 vehicles daily
- Bridge could accommodate 10-20x current capacity
- Comparative Cleddau Bridge saw traffic grow from 885,900 (1975) to 4.7m (2024) crossings annually
- Similar growth potential for Strangford crossing with improved infrastructure
The data indicates strong demographic and economic cases for improved crossing infrastructure, with growing populations and complementary economic profiles that would benefit from better connectivity. The success of comparable projects like the Cleddau Bridge suggests significant potential for traffic growth.
References:
- “Census Data 2021 v 2011” for both council areas
- “Ireland’s Ancient East Regional Tourism Development Strategy 2023-2027”
- “Northern Ireland Fishing & Seafood Development Programme Final Report April 2021”
- “Strangford Lough Ferry Service Strategic Review Report 2013”